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Working Paper

Favorable External Conditions and the Korean Economy in 1986

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  • 저자 노성태(盧成泰)
  • 발행일 1987/08/01
  • 시리즈 번호 8711
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요약 Our estimation results demonstrate that Korea owed, to a
great extent, its unusually good economic performance in 1986 th
the favorable changes in the world economic environment. The
results should be used with caution, however, since they are
based on simple equations, bold assumptions, and working
hypotheses. At present, the author and his colleagues at the
Korea Development Institute are revising semiannual and
quarterly models to measure the impacts in a more analytical
and systematic way. Although these efforts will produce some
improvement, we believe that the coming estimation results will
be similar to the ones reported in this paper.

One policy implication we can draw form the estimation
result is that economic policy makers should be well prepared
for opposite changes in external conditions, th which the
economy is too sensitive. Oil prices and international interest
rates rose during the first five months of 1987. Under the
pressure of the United States, the speed of the won appreciation
has been accelerated: almost 20% at an annual rate in the month
of May. Macroeconomic policies in the future should be directed
toward mitigating the adverse effects of external changes and
sustaining economic growth and moderate current-account
surpluses.
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