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정책세미나

World Economic Adjustment since the First Oil Crisis

페이스북
커버이미지
  • 저자 Anne O. Krueger
  • 발행일 1985/03/01
  • 시리즈 번호 85-01
원문보기
요약 Assuming a normal recovery, what will happen to
commodity prices, monetary and fiscal imbalance in the U.S.,
interest rates, and capital flows to developing countries?

Given the current trends in the world economy, the outlook
is solid, assuming that there is a return to a balance between
monetary and fiscal policies in the U.S. If this is the case, it is
reasonable to expect that the flow of private capital to
developing countries would resume as an important vehicle of
growth. This would enable many developing countries to enter
the phase where they are creditworthy and maintain an
acceptable debt service ratio.

One can draw several lessons form the adjustment process
of the seventies. First, it is crucial to borrow for productive
investments rather than for postponing adjustment. Second, there
is an acceptable rate of debt increase. If it increase too fast,
there will likely be troubles along the way, and thus
management of debt increase is important. Third, it is desirable
for some developing countries to place higher priority on direct
foreign investment and rely less on short-term loans. Fourth, it
is also important to pay attention both the maturity structure of
outstanding debt and to maintaining a fairly high ratio of gross
to net debt in order to smooth out fluctuations.

The lessons of the eighties center in the importance of good
macroeconomic management and of maintaining flexibility for
economic growth. It would be good if we can resume the
growth of the fifties and sixties but even if we do, there are
bound to be surprise. The countries that do have flexible
economic policies and are able and willing to adjust to a
changing environment will be in good position to benefit from
the resumption of world economic growth. While most countries
are in the recovery phase, gradually resuming growth and
learning how to be flexible in economic policy, Korea stands out
as a model of successful adjustment and is in excellent shape
for a second take-off.

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