Working Paper What the Estimates of the Balance of Foreign Exchange of North Koreans Would Tell Us 2020.07.23
We first introduce and summarize preceding research on the balance of foreign exchange (BFE) of North Koreans (1991–2017) based on the method used by Zang (2009, 2013) and Zang and Kim (2019). Then, we present new estimates for the BFE of North Koreans in 2018 (including North Korea’s earnings from cyberattacks). Combining all of the results, we present a new estimate of the current foreign exchange holdings of North Koreans at end-2018. We also discuss how to estimate the foreign exchange holdings of North Koreans in the unofficial sector. Finally, we could present some guidelines to understand the responses from the North Korean authorities on international sanctions as well as North Korea-US dialogues.
Ⅱ. Why Do We Talk About the BFE of North Koreans and Not the Balance of Payments of North Korea?
Ⅲ. Major Items Estimated to Approximate BFE of North Koreans
Ⅳ. Summary of What the Previous Estimates on North Korea’s BFE (1991–2012) Tell Us
Ⅴ. Recent Estimates on the BFE of North Koreans (2013–2018) and the Implications
Ⅵ. Estimates on North Korean’s Foreign Exchange Holdings at End-2018
Ⅶ. Suggestions for Estimating North Korea’s Foreign Exchange Held Unofficially by Individual North Koreans
Ⅷ. Outlook for North Korea’s Policy Responses
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