KDI 한국개발연구원 - 연구

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기타보고서 Sanctions and North Korea’s External Trade

The objective of this paper is to analyze the contents and effectiveness of sanctions and their impact on North Korea's external trade. In addition, this study aims to examine the statistical significance of the sanctions' effects and estimate the direct damage inflicted upon the country. This paper contributes to the ongoing discourse on the consequences of sanctions against North Korea, and it aids readers in comprehending the secondary effects of the sanctions on other sectors, such as industries and regional economies, the foreign exchange balance, and the informal sector. The initial stage of this investigation involves establishing three parameters, which are as follows.

The first parameter pertains to the period of analysis. The consensus is that the imposition of truly "tough" sanctions occurred after the 2017 United Nations Security Council resolutions, the consequences of which were observed in 2018 and 2019. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 further complicated the situation. The resulting border closure had a direct impact on North Korean trade, making it challenging to differentiate between the effects of the sanctions and the pandemic.

The second parameter concerns the scope of external trade analysis. While it is meaningful to consider the country's external trade comprehensively, this study concentrates on North Korea's trade with China. This focus is justified by the significant influence that China exerts on the North Korean economy, accounting for more than 90% of its external trade. Bilateral trade has long been considered the sole reliable indicator of the effectiveness of North Korea sanctions. Supplementary data pertaining to external trade changes is provided in the annexes at the end of this paper to enable a broader perspective on the subject matter.

The third parameter encompasses the analysis of individual export and import items. The vast majority of North Korean sanctions have been aimed at the country's trade and have targeted specific goods. Consequently, the effects of sanctions became apparent first in the exports and imports of these items. Therefore, the direct effects of sanctions can be ascertained by scrutinizing the changes in the trade of designated items and comparing them to those of non-designated items. The analysis mainly involves examining the exports and imports of individual items. This approach is also beneficial for analyzing the changes in trade during the pandemic. Clarifying the effects of the COVID-19 trade suspension on the import of items that continued normally despite the strengthening of sanctions in 2018 and 2019 will illuminate which sectors of the economy have been affected by the pandemic and how.

The initial segment of this paper presents a comprehensive outline of the international sanctions imposed on North Korea and, specifically, their contents regarding the country's external trade. The subsequent discussions revolve around the effects of sanctions at the individual item level and an empirical analysis of their effects using the difference-in-differences method. The study also examines the changes that occurred during the pandemic and concludes with an overall assessment and implications.

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기타보고서 Features and Structure of the Current International Economic Sanctions on the DPRK

Trade sanctions, self-inflicted wounds, and most of all, an economic system out of step with the global community has turned North Korea into a true hermit kingdom. Its foreign trade and investment, inward and outward, in 2021 is nearly zero, the least in the world. Attention needs to be focused on what, if anything, can be done from the outside to bring Pyongyang out of its shell. Fine tuning sanctions policies will be critical but pressure for internal economic reforms is and must remain intense. To get rid of or at least bury its nuclear weapons, the regime must find that the weapons are not worth the danger to its economic, social, and ultimately even its political stability. The first step by the US may be to revisit the trade actions that, in the context of an irrational fixed-price system installed by Joseph Stalin in 1945, properly first prevented US-North Korean engagement three quarters of a century ago. The world has changed, and North Korea is changing, its Marxist-Leninist fixed-prices and wages may no longer be quite so out of sync with ours and fruitful mutual and thus self-sustaining trade may be possible. Prior to sanctions relief, an adaptation of the Cold War era Column 2 tariffs on our part may be just the incentive needed to move toward a more normal and less hostile relationship, even prior to any full discussion or resolution of the nuclear weapons problem.

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예비타당성조사보고서 이천시 동부권광역자원회수시설 증설사업

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타당성 재조사 보고서 새만금지구(내부개발) 간척종합개발사업

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예비타당성조사보고서 문경~김천 단선전철사업

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타당성 재조사 보고서 동광주~광산 고속도로 확장사업

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예비타당성조사보고서 공단고가교~서인천IC 혼잡도로 개설사업

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예비타당성조사보고서 부산항 북항 2단계 재개발 사업

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타당성 재조사 보고서 광주 도시철도 2호선 건설사업

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예비타당성조사보고서 경상남도의료원 진주병원 설립사업

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