KDI 한국개발연구원 - 경제정책정보 - 발간처별 목록 - 국외 경제사회연구원 - CEPR - Growing Apart or Moving Together? Synchronization of Informal and Formal Economy Cycles

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Growing Apart or Moving Together? Synchronization of Informal and Formal Economy Cycles

CEPR 2021.09.08
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We study the degree of synchronization between formal- and informal-economy business cycles. Using a comprehensive database of informal activity that covers a wide range of informality measures from almost 160 countries over the 1990-2018 period, we report two major results. First, fluctuations in informal-sector output are strongly positively correlated with those in formal-sector output. In contrast, fluctuations in informal employment are largely uncorrelated with those in formal-sector output. Second, movements in the formal economy tend to spillover to the informal economy. Using a novel set of instrumental variables, we show that fluctuations in formal-sector output "cause" movements in informal-sector output.

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