KDI Korea Development Institute

Summary

Research Monograph KOR The Impact of Increased Government Bond Issuance and Policy Directions

This study analyzes the repercussions of the sharp increase in government bond issuance following the economic crisis induced by COVID-19. The surge in the issuance of government bonds in South Korea was substantial, driven by the need for financial resources to support expansive fiscal policies in response to the pandemic. As government bond issuance rises, so does the yield on government bonds. Given that the demand in the financial market comprises households, businesses, the government, and external sectors, the increased issuance not only affects government bond yields but also leads to a rise in interest rates faced by households and businesses.

Conversely, the study explores the impact of government bond buy-backs on yield changes, offering a direction opposite to that of increased issuance. Utilizing a dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with macro factors, including macroeconomic variables, the study estimates changes in the yield curve resulting from both increased issuance and buy-backs. Empirical analysis reveals that a 1 trillion KRW increase in government bond issuance leads to a 2.5 to 2.9 basis points rise in yields, particularly pronounced in the medium to long-term maturities. Conversely, a 1 trillion KRW increase in government bond buy-backs results in a 1.9 to 2.1 basis points decrease in yields, with a more significant impact on medium to long-term maturities with relatively less demand.

Moving on to domestic demand factors, the study examines the influence of macroprudential regulations on government bond yields. Specifically, it analyzes the impact of restrictions on securities firms' participation in the call market and banking sector liquidity regulations, such as the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR). These regulations, introduced to maintain stability in financial systems post-global financial crisis, have direct and indirect effects on government bond demand, consequently influencing market interest rates and resource allocation.

The analysis indicates that restricting securities firms' call market participation to below 25% of equity leads to a substantial increase in securities firms' participation in the repo market. Consequently, the demand for government bonds by securities firms increases, resulting in a yield decrease of approximately 10.8 to 12.5 basis points. Similarly, the phased introduction of LCR regulations leads to increased demand for government bonds by banks, contributing to a yield decrease of around 6.1 to 7.3 basis points. These findings underscore the importance of considering the ripple effects on financial markets through government bond demand when adjusting the intensity of financial stability regulations.

Lastly, the study examines the impact of external uncertainties, represented by global volatility (VIX), on foreign capital flows and exchange rates. Traditionally, an increase in VIX corresponds to capital outflows and currency depreciation. However, recent observations indicate a decrease in the magnitude of these effects, suggesting a shift in the behavior of foreign investors in government bonds. The study concludes by highlighting the need to consider the potential effects on financial markets through government bond demand when adjusting or introducing financial stability regulations in the future.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR Drivers of Part-time Work Growth and Policy Recommendations

This study examines the causes of part-time work growth in South Korea over the past decade and offers policy insights. Chapter 2 analyzes 2012-2022 data from the Additional Survey by Type of Employment of Economically Active Population Survey and the Survey of Labor Conditions by Employment Type, identifying when and which types of part-time workers increased. The growth, notable during 2016-2019, was primarily driven by older workers, part-time workers with extremely short hours (under 15 hours weekly), and service sector employees. It proposes three hypotheses: (1) workforce composition shifts, including aging and service sector expansion; (2) the adoption of a nonlinear labor cost schedule with a significant discontinuity at 15 hours per week; and (3) the minimum wage increases in 2018-2019.

Chapter 3 employs DiNardo et al.’s (1996) decomposition methodology to assess the contribution of workforce composition changes to part-time work growth. Findings reveal limited explanatory power, as within-group part-time trends dominate and declining youth employment offsets rising elderly employment, suggesting institutional and policy factors as primary drivers.

Chapter 4 analyzes the growth of extremely short-hour work driven by institutional factors affecting labor demand, focusing on a nonlinear labor cost schedule with a significant discontinuity at 15 hours per week (or 60 hours per month). Enhanced compliance with this institutional structure in the 2010s, measured by industry-level variations in social insurance enrollment rates for workers with 60-99 monthly hours, strongly correlates with the growth of part-time workers with very short hours, particularly among new hires.

Chapter 5 conducts an event-study analysis with a continuous treatment variable of the effects of the 2018-2019 minimum wage increases on working hours distribution, finding substantial wage increases for low-wage workers but no clear causal link to the growth of part-time workers with very short hours, which follows the pre-2017 trend. Evidence suggests that this growth likely stems from sustained improvement in compliance with the nonlinear labor cost schedule analyzed in Chapter 4 rather than minimum wage increases.

Chapter 6 concludes with a summary of empirical findings and offers policy recommendations to reduce discontinuities in the nonlinear labor cost schedule at 15 hours per week. Focusing on the Weekly Holiday Allowance, it outlines institutional reform directions and addresses implementation challenges.

Summary

Policy Study KOR The Macroeconomic Effects of Social Welfare Reform in South Korea

This study examines the macroeconomic and welfare impacts of replacing South Korea’s targeted income support programs with a universal income support system. A life-cycle overlapping generations (OLG) model with heterogeneous households is constructed to reflect existing programs, such as basic livelihood assistance, child allowances, earned income credits, and public pensions, and to incorporate institutional features and household-level income distribution, including joint household labor decisions.

Simulations of five policy scenarios show that universal benefit increases aggregate output but reduces social welfare due to weaker safety net effectiveness. Program impacts vary, suggesting well-designed targeted schemes may outperform universal income support. Findings also highlight the importance of aligning income support policies with household needs while ensuring fiscal sustainability.

Summary

Policy Study KOR A Study on Strategic Procurement

Around the world, public procurement is increasingly being designed to serve broader social objectives ― such as supporting disadvantaged groups or promoting innovation ― alongside its traditional economic goals. This trend is also gaining momentum in Korea. In this paper, we refer to the use of procurement to achieve these secondary aims as “strategic public procurement” and explore its potential benefits and costs. Specifically, we conduct an empirical analysis of strategic procurement practices that prioritize certain companies or products, with a focus on Korea’s purchase target ratio system. Our findings suggest that procurement aimed at fostering innovation can be economically effective, whereas evidence supporting procurement targeted at disadvantaged groups is less consistent.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Time Preference Estimation in Korea: Focusing on the Impact of Age

This study systematically analyzes the relationship between time preference and age in South Korea, offering policy implications. It reviews the theoretical foundations of age-specific characteristics of time preference and empirically examines time preferences using survey methodology. Findings reveal that time preferences follow a U-shaped pattern with age, reaching their lowest point in the 45-50 age range. Educational attainment significantly impacts time preferences, with college graduates linked to lower preferences and smoother age-related patterns compared to those with high school education or less. Additionally, life insurance policyholders and groups with high financial literacy demonstrate lower and more stable time preferences. These results suggest the need for targeted life-cycle policies. Contrary to traditional economic theory’s view of time preference as a fixed exogenous variable, this study suggests potential endogenous changes, advocating tailored policy approaches in savings, education, finance, and information provision.

Summary

Policy Study KOR The Impact of Demographic Changes on Productivity

Demographic transitions in South Korea are projected to slow its potential economic growth through declining labor input and lowering total factor productivity (TFP). However, the TFP channel has been relatively underexplored compared to the labor input channel due to data limitations. To address this gap, this study constructs a comprehensive firm-level dataset by combining KISDATA from the NICE Information Service with income tax records from the National Tax Service. The resulting dataset includes information on both firm-level productivity and the age composition of employees, enabling a quantitative analysis of how workforce aging affects TFP.

The analysis reveals five key findings. (1) An inverse U-shaped relationship exists between employee age composition and TFP, peaking at ages 35-49. (2) Among employees aged 50 and older, TFP significantly decreases as their share rises. Relative to the 35-39 reference group, an increasing share of 40-49 year-olds has no statistically significant effect. However, a 1%p increase in the 50-54 share decreases TFP by 0.2%, and a 1%p rise in those aged 55 and above shows a larger 0.5% decline. (3) The negative impact of workforce aging is more pronounced in firms in the Seoul metropolitan area, firms with 50-299 employees, manufacturing and construction sectors, and firms operating over 30 years. (4) Firms with low average education and wage levels, high labor intensity, or low value-added per employee exhibit greater TFP declines due to workforce aging. (5) While strong seniority-based wage systems are associated with an earlier peak in the inverse U-curve, firms with weak seniority wages experience larger TFP declines due to aging.

The findings suggest that overlooking the TFP channel may lead to underestimating the demographic effects on economic growth. Mid-to-long-term population projections indicate that population aging will reduce TFP by an annual average of 0.2% between 2031 and 2041. The persistent downward pressure on productivity should be incorporated into assumptions about the future TFP trajectory.

This study identifies firms most vulnerable to population aging through heterogeneity analyses, offering targeted policy recommendations for South Korea's labor supply strategies. As industries become more labor-intensive, low-skill, and low-wage, their productivity declines are expected to be even steeper from workforce aging. Expanding younger foreign worker inflows in the short term can bolster labor supply, while long-term strategies should enhance productivity in these industries to attract domestic youth. Additionally, as seniority-based wage systems exacerbate the productivity impact of aging, reducing reliance on seniority and expanding task- and performance-based compensation systems is advisable for improving TFP.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Impact of Global Trade Fragmentation on South Korea’s Exports: The U.S-China Trade War and Policy Insights

This study analyzes the effects of the U.S.-China trade war on third-country exports to the U.S. and China, focusing on South Korea. Using tariff change data that occurred during the 2018~19 US-China trade war, it estimates product-level elasticities of substitution, i.e., tariff cross-elasticities, and investigates their determinants across countries, industries, and products. This analysis elucidates the heterogeneous effects of the trade war, informing policies to seize new export opportunities amid ongoing global trade fragmentation.

The results show that Korea’s tariff cross-elasticities toward the U.S., relative to U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, were generally positive, implying that higher U.S. tariffs tend to boost Korean exports to the U.S. In contrast, the elasticity toward China, relative to Chinese tariffs on U.S. imports, was negative on average, suggesting that increased Chinese tariffs tend to reduce Korea’s exports to China. Comparing predicted and actual export changes reveals a potential underestimation bias in the regression model.

Decomposing the determinants of tariff cross-elasticities into country, industry, and product factors reveals the significance of country-specific elements for exports to the U.S. and China, with industry factors also exhibiting relevance for exports to the U.S. In the case of Korea, tariff elasticities were higher in high-tech, capital-intensive, or export-integrated industries.

Additionally, analysis of Korean manufacturing shows that industries with economies of scale reduced production costs and expanded output during the trade war. Zooming into factors for economies of scale, capital-intensive industries with prior investments saw increased value-added, expanded investment, and lower costs. Export-integrated industries exhibited similar positive outcomes.

Lastly, simulations based on the estimated elasticities project that four U.S.-China tariff scenarios increase Korea’s exports to the U.S. by 0.1% to 7.0%, depending on the extent of U.S. tariff changes on Chinese imports. In a severe scenario where both countries impose roughly 10%p additional tariffs on all bilateral imports, Korea's exports are projected to rise by about 4.7% to the U.S. and 9.1% to China.

These findings inform policy decisions for Korea to navigate global trade changes, such as the U.S.-China trade war, by prioritizing targeted support for high-tech and capital-intensive industries and bolstering investment and export infrastructure to enhance resilience and capture emerging export opportunities.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Transport Policy for Megacity Regions: Insights from Commuting and Travel Patterns

This study employs a network community detection approach to identify megacity regions in South Korea based on commuting and travel flows between municipalities―cities (si), counties (gun), and districts (gu)―and defined boundaries. The analysis finds 16 megacity regions in 2000, 19 in 2005, 16 in 2010, 17 in 2015, and 15 in 2020.

Comparing these findings with the designated metropolitan areas under the Special Act on Metropolitan Area Transport Management, the study proposes revisions to these designations. Specifically, the Busan-Ulsan area should be split into two regions, Busan-Gyeongnam and Ulsan-Pohang-Gyeongju. Additionally, Changnyeong-gun, currently part of the Daegu area, should be reassigned to the Busan-Gyeongnam area, and Gimcheon-si should be incorporated into the Daegu area. For the Gwangju area, expansion could be considered with additional municipalities of Yeongam, Muan, Mokpo, Gokseong, Haenam, Yeonggwang, Gangjin, Jangheung, Wando, and Jindo. The Daejeon area could also consider adding Buyeo, Yeongdong (Chungbuk-do), and Muju (Jeonbuk-do), while Cheongju and Boeun in the existing Daejeon area appear to form a different cluster. Furthermore, given population size and constituent municipalities, the Jeonbuk area―encompassing Jeonju, Wanju, Iksan, Gimje, Gunsan, Jeongeup, Seocheon, Namwon, Buan, Imsil, Gochang, Jinan, Sunchang, and Jangsu―should be recognized as an additional metropolitan area under the Special Act.

This study also identifies anchor and hub cities (nodal points) within each megacity region and proposes a framework for establishing a polycentric spatial structure, a key feature of megacity development. For instance, within the Seoul Metropolitan Area (A), Gangnam and Jung-gu in Seoul serve as major inflow nodes, while Seongnam and Suwon in Gyeonggi-do are major outflow nodes. To support megacity development, it is necessary to build a transport system that connects these nodes with surrounding municipalities.

Among large-scale transport infrastructure projects for megacity development, railway service expansion is identified as the most feasible option, with the greatest potential to reshape the centrality of cities, counties, and districts. Accordingly, this study assesses the impact and sustainability of railway services on the centrality. The findings indicate that, outside the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) and excluding regional metropolitan cities, railway expansion consistently increases inflow degree centrality, reinforcing the crucial role of rail networks in fostering polycentric megacities.

Based on these findings, transport infrastructure recommendations for megacity development are proposed. First, the definition of metropolitan transport under the Special Act should be expanded from 'travel between cities and provinces within a metropolitan area' to travel between cities, counties, and districts that form integrated living and economic areas.' This expansion would provide a legal basis for transport infrastructure provision to support megacity development. Regarding funding mechanisms, the study proposes strengthening the user pays principle, including expanding both the entities responsible for formulating metropolitan transport improvement plans and the entities subject to transport facility charges. In particular, to secure funding for railway construction and capture land value gains around transit-oriented developments (TOD), the study suggests an integrated approach that effectively aligns railway TOD with railway construction projects.

Lastly, an integrated governance framework should be established to coordinate transport projects for megacity development. To that end, it emphasizes the importance of setting shared objectives and consolidating authority and responsibilities within a flexible governance structure.

Summary

Policy Study KOR A Study on the Superior Bargaining Position of Digital Platforms

This report analyzes the superior bargaining position of digital platform companies and their exploitation of this advantage. Two key characteristics underpin this position: (i) their advanced capacity for data collection and utilization compared to traditional firms, and (ii) their role as rule-setters within the marketplaces they have established.

Existing literature identifies three primary sources of their bargaining power: (i) information asymmetry, (ii) demand-side monopoly power, and (iii) hold-up arising from relationship-specific investments. Due to their superior data collection and utilization capabilities, platform firms are better positioned than traditional firms to exploit information asymmetry, thereby abusing their bargaining position. Additionally, the dynamic nature of platform markets often magnifies demand-side monopoly power. Despite a small market share, platforms can still exert significant market influence depending on user behavior. However, hold-up concerns over relationship-specific investments are less pronounced because platforms, which typically offer standardized terms of trade, find it challenging to enforce customized contract terms tailored to individual business users. Under customized contracts, the likelihood and severity of exploitation through hold-ups become most acute.

Theoretical model analysis reveals that platform firms may have incentives to refrain from using even the information they have acquired to capitalize on their superior bargaining position. Regarding relationship-specific investments, the inability to adopt customized contracts can encourage business users to invest despite the absence of a binding commitment mechanism―in sharp contrast with existing studies on relationship-specific investments and investment delays.

In concludion, this analysis highlights several critical issues that must be addressed to improve the short-term effectiveness and long-term consistency of regulatory measures targeting the abuse of superior bargaining positions by platform firms. First, discussions are needed on victim identification and the impact on the trade order. Current legal precedents requiring the identification of specific victims could hinder efforts to regulate the abuse of superior bargaining positions by platforms. For platforms that set rules for a wide range of counterparties, mandating counterparty specification could significantly limit the regulatory scope for addressing the abuse of superior bargaining positions. In the short term, therefore, it is advisable to alleviate the burden of identifying specific counterparties while still requiring evidence of adverse impacts on the trade oreder, consistent with the Geumbo Development precedent. Moreover, given the multi-sidedness of digital platforms, it is important to consider efficiency-enhancing or pro-competitive effects that may arise in adjacent markets or on the opposite side of the platform when examining instances of superior bargaining position abuse. In the long term, it would be preferable to transition toward regulation through competition law enforcement, such as addressing abuses of market-dominant positions. Acts that harm the trade order against unspecified counterparties are inherently subject to competition law. However, the current reliance on market share as a proxy for market dominance should be replaced by direct measure of market power, and legislative reforms, such as amendments to presumptive provisions, may also be necessary. Finally, to deter and promptly detect abuses of superior bargaining positions by platforms, it is essential to establish a dedicated, permanent oversight bodyendowed with the authority to access data or algorithms as needed.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Electricity Market Segmentation with Uncertainty in Demand and Supply

This study examines the structural limitations of Korea’s electricity market amid the growing share of renewable energy and seeks approaches to modify the market structure to facilitate a low-carbon transition. Korea’s electricity market currently functions as a cost-based, day-ahead market, which constrains its ability to manage supply-demand imbalances effectively as renewable energy rises. To address this, the study evaluates the necessity of introducing a capacity market as a forward mechanism, combined with generation-specific segmentation. A capacity market, in particular, is identified as a key tool to provide stable investment incentives for marginal generators, especially as the share of high-volatility resources like renewables increases, thus enhancing supply stability. Additionally, the study highlights the need to adjust capacity prices dynamically according to the market share of renewables and energy storage systems(ESS). In considering policies to support renewables and ESS, the study contrasts fixed-price contracts with dedicated capacity markets. While fixed-price contracts are vital in the short term to encourage market entry, it is equally important, in the long run, to operate the spot market in a technology-neutral manner to alleviate excessive risk burdens on wholesale market buyers. These insights offer policy recommendations to maintain a stable power supply and support the sustainable expansion of renewable energy.

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