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정책세미나

Priorities of Economic Reform in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union

페이스북
커버이미지
  • 저자 Rudiger Dornbusch
  • 발행일 1991/06/01
  • 시리즈 번호 91-02
원문보기
요약 Policy makers in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union
cannot afford to try and "manage" a soft landing. They now
have to introduce the key changes that let economic agents look
after most of the decision. Markets will spring up the central
task of employment and the standard of living. It is assumed
that government can handle this better than the market, but
why then are these countries so much of a mess, why are they
collapsing? The new leadership has a hard tome to allow change
to proceed; they rightly fear that there will be hardship. But
they wrongly believe that they can avoid it by exercising
discretionary controls and restrictions on production, employment,
trade and property. These tools were discredited under
communism, they should be thrown overboard immediately.

The no-man's land in between the market and repressive
controls makes it impossible to carry forward an economy
organized around the division of labor; economies will simply
collapse as no signals are around to give direction as to the key
questions: what to produce, for whom and how. Surely the
worst scenario is that of a mixed economy: capitalism without
profits and socialism without planning. There are two ways to
go : backward to repressive control of politics and economics, as
in China, or a great leap forward to the market.

With the great commitment to democracy we can fortunately
rest assured that communist repression will not be the answer
in the majority of countries. But democracy, with the existing
institution in Eastern Europe is not enough to let markets
function. Governments must implement without delay pervasive
privatization of the economy, in respect to property and economic
decision. First let markers function, then decide whether and
where some restraint are in order. Economic agents must be
able to look ahead and decide what to do with their loves;
unless the government steps out of their way the whole process
cannot even begin. If reform proceeds hesitantly, economic
collapse is certain and the market economy experiment becomes
discredited before it even starts.

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