KDI 한국개발연구원 - 경제정책정보 - 발간처별 목록 - 경제분야 국제기구 - ECB - Endogenous TFP, business cycle persistence and the productivity slowdown in the euro area

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Endogenous TFP, business cycle persistence and the productivity slowdown in the euro area

ECB 2020.05.26
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This paper analyses the endogeneity of euro area total factor productivity and its role in business cycle amplification by estimating a medium-scale DSGE model with endogenous productivity mechanism on euro area data. In this framework, total factor productivity evolves endogenously as a consequence of costly investment in R&D and adoption of new technologies. We find that the endogeneity of TFP induces a high degree of persistence in the euro area business cycle via a feedback mechanism between overall economic conditions and investment in productivity-enhancing technologies. As to the sources of the euro area productivity slowdown, we conclude that a decrease in the efficiency of R&D investment is among the key factors generating the pre-crisis productivity slowdown, while starting from the Great Recession a shock to liquidity demand is identified as the most important driving force. The endogenous technology mechanism further exerts a dampening effect on the inflation response following a recessionary shock and hence has important implications for both the negligible fall in inflation during the Great Recession, as well as the sluggish increase of inflation in the subsequent recovery.

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