KDI 한국개발연구원 - 경제정책정보 - 발간처별 목록 - 경제분야 국제기구 - ADBI - Capital Inflow Surges and Consequences

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Capital Inflow Surges and Consequences

ADBI 2016.07.29
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While capital flows to emerging markets bring numerous benefits, they are also known to create macroeconomic imbalances (economic overheating, currency overvaluation) and increase financial vulnerabilities (domestic credit growth, bank leverage, foreign currency-denominated lending). But are all inflows the same? In this paper, we examine whether the source of the inflow?esidents repatriating foreign assets or nonresidents investing in the country?r the type of inflow (foreign direct investment, portfolio, other investment) makes any difference to the consequences of the capital flow. Our results, based on a sample of 53 emerging markets over 1980?013, show that when it comes to the source of the inflow, the macroeconomic and financial-stability consequences of flows driven by residents (asset flows) and nonresidents (liability flows) are broadly similar in economic terms. Formal statistical tests, however, suggest that liability flows are more prone to causing economic overheating and domestic credit expansion than asset flows.

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